AI Companies Expected to Drive Most US Corporate Earnings Growth in Q3

Summary

Artificial intelligence-related companies are expected to contribute a major share of US corporate earnings growth in the third quarter of 2026. Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings to increase by around 31% compared with the same period last year, with much of that growth coming from technology companies and major AI players. However, investors are also questioning whether the current pace of growth can continue as spending on AI infrastructure increases.

What Happened?

US companies are heading into the third-quarter earnings season with strong growth expectations, but much of the anticipated increase is coming from businesses linked to artificial intelligence.

According to LSEG data cited by Reuters, analysts expect earnings across the S&P 500 to rise approximately 31% year over year. Tajinder Dhillon, LSEG’s head of earnings and equity research, said around two-thirds of the expected increase would come from the technology sector and major companies such as Alphabet, Amazon and Meta Platforms.

These companies are investing heavily in AI infrastructure, including data centres, computing capacity and services designed to support growing demand for AI tools.

The optimism surrounding AI has also helped lift US technology stocks. The S&P 500 reached a record high during the week before the earnings season was expected to begin, adding to expectations that major technology companies could report strong results.

Which Companies Are Driving AI-Related Growth?

Several large technology companies are playing an important role in the current earnings outlook.

• Alphabet: Google’s parent company is investing in AI models, cloud computing and infrastructure to expand its AI capabilities.
• Amazon: Its cloud computing business, Amazon Web Services, is a major part of its AI strategy, providing computing resources and services for businesses developing AI applications.
• Meta Platforms: The company is spending heavily on AI infrastructure and developing AI capabilities across its platforms and products.

Their investments reflect the growing importance of AI in the technology industry. As demand for AI services increases, companies supplying computing power, cloud infrastructure and related technologies may also benefit.

However, strong earnings expectations do not guarantee that every company will meet market forecasts. Investors will be watching the actual results, future guidance and planned spending closely.

Why Are Investors Watching AI Spending?

Although AI-related businesses are supporting earnings growth, investors are increasingly concerned about how long the trend can last.

Developing and operating advanced AI systems requires substantial investment in computing infrastructure, specialised chips, data centres and energy. Technology companies are continuing to spend heavily to expand their capabilities and compete in the AI market.

Sameer Samana, head of global equities and real assets at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, told Reuters that technology and AI could account for 70% to 80% of earnings growth, with energy and materials also contributing.

The concern is that expectations may continue to rise as companies report strong results. Investors will want evidence that large AI investments are generating sufficient revenue and profits to justify the spending.

Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial, said investors may be approaching a point where earnings growth becomes harder to accelerate.

As companies continue investing quarter after quarter, the market may demand stronger evidence of returns from their AI projects.

Energy Companies Are Also Expected to Report Strong Growth

Technology is not the only sector contributing to the earnings outlook.

According to the Reuters report, energy sector earnings are expected to increase by approximately 115% compared with a year earlier. Higher US oil prices, which rose roughly 30% during the third quarter amid the ongoing US-Israeli war with Iran, have helped support expectations for the sector.

Geopolitical developments can influence energy prices and company profits, making the outlook for oil and gas businesses different from that of technology companies.

Even so, the expected contribution from energy does not change the central theme of the current earnings season: technology and AI-related businesses are forecast to account for a substantial share of overall growth.

Some Sectors May See Much Weaker Earnings Growth

The earnings outlook is not equally strong across the US stock market.

Samana also pointed to consumer staples and real estate as sectors with some of the weakest year-over-year earnings growth expectations for the third quarter.

This difference highlights how concentrated the expected earnings increase has become. While companies connected to AI are benefiting from strong investment and demand, other industries are not expected to experience the same level of growth.

For investors, this makes it important to look beyond the headline S&P 500 earnings figure and examine which industries are actually contributing to the increase.

Can Third-Quarter Earnings Beat the Previous Quarter?

Another question is whether companies can match or exceed the strong performance recorded in the second quarter of 2026.

LSEG data showed that S&P 500 earnings grew by nearly 54% year over year in the second quarter, marking the strongest growth since 2021. Even after excluding mark-to-market gains at Alphabet and Amazon related to AI investments, earnings growth was around 35%, also the highest since 2021.

The third-quarter forecast of approximately 31% growth is therefore below the previous quarter’s reported rate.

Companies often report earnings above analysts’ expectations, and investors will be watching to see whether that pattern continues. However, even positive results may not be enough to push share prices higher if companies provide weaker forecasts or investors believe future growth is slowing.

What Comes Next?

The US earnings season is expected to provide a clearer picture of whether AI-related investments are translating into sustained business growth.

Investors will pay particular attention to revenue from AI services, cloud computing performance, capital expenditure plans and management forecasts for the coming quarters.

Strong results could support confidence in the AI investment trend. On the other hand, rising costs or signs that demand is not keeping pace with investment could increase pressure on technology stocks.

The results from major banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, are also expected to help set the tone as the reporting season gets underway.

Conclusion

AI-related companies are expected to drive much of the growth in US corporate earnings during the third quarter of 2026. Analysts forecast a roughly 31% increase in S&P 500 earnings, with technology companies and major AI players accounting for a substantial portion of the expected gains.

However, the outlook also comes with uncertainty. Investors are increasingly focused on whether companies can generate enough returns from their expanding AI investments to maintain their current growth rates. The upcoming earnings reports should offer important clues about whether the AI-driven expansion can continue at its current pace.